It's six years since I rubbed my crystal ball, and having found it when looking for Christmas decorations earlier this month, I've given it a good rub to see what it has to offer. The last time it was hopelessly inaccurate, but who could have foreseen the pandemic? I've downloaded some cheap AI to help it this time, will the results be any better for predicting 2026?

1 - January 2026 - The big story is the leak by a disgruntled ex-ORR employee of the details of Lord Hendy's new dynamic fare structure, the centrepiece of his policy of simplifying the UK's train fares. In the Guardian article in which it is revealed, the draft computer program is run and gives (in some cases) more different fares for a sample journey in a week than there are passengers travelling that route. The leak also includes a draft of the new seven-volume routing and permitted use manual, designed to ensure that no-one can ever use a ticket with a cheaper fare for a journey on another one between the same two places. In the resulting furore, Lord Hendy resigns, the proposals are dropped but some of the cost of developing the software is recouped by selling it to Ryanair.

2 - February 2026 - Dismay at Go-op when ORR finally terminates their provisional track access agreement. Their dismay is deepened when they seek legal advice about a court challenge, and are told that their funds of £25-19, two old buttons and an old Coke can ring-pull are insufficient to fund the action. Their email offer to Richard Branson to help with his bid for a new cross-channel service goes unanswered.

3 - March 2026 - Concern in Scotland as SNP Transport Secretary Fiona Hyslop announces the award of the contract to replace ScotRail's aging fleet of HST to Ferguson Marine "to keep jobs in Scotland". There is however delight among the many fans of HSTs, who now know that they can look forward to many more years of holidays in Scotland to travel on their favourite trains.

4 - April 2026 - Political turmoil in the UK. Premier Starmer and Chancellor Reeve resign after a no-confidence vote fuelled by many competing campaigns for a new Labour leader and triggered by another set of poor economic figures. The subsequent leadership contest sees the Labour party split into four new parties - Pro Palestine, anti-Trans; Pro-Israel, anti-Trans; Pro-Palestine, pro-Trans and Pro-Palestine, pro-Trans. Andy Burnham decides that maybe Mayor of Greater Manchester is not such a bad job after all. In the subsequent chaotic snap General Election, Reform wins a narrow majority in a seven-way split vote. New PM Nigel Farage tries to find a new Transport Secretary and Rail Minister, but after Francis Bourgeois, Michael Portillo and Christopher Awdry all turn him down, he appoints Reform donors, the London property developers the Candy brothers, to the two posts. They promise a new national rail policy in the coming three months.

5 - May 2026 - After the Candy brothers announce their first proposal, a 75% reduction in staff at ORR and DfT, staff at both organisations go on indefinite strike. When Laura Shoaf, chair of shadow GBR and the managers of the remaining franchises ask the new government who should now give them instructions, they are told to "just get on with it".

6 - June 2026 - Eddy Dempsey, leader of RMT announces national rail strike in support of his campaign for an inflation-busting 8% pay claim and a return to guard/TM operated doors throughout the GBR system. In response, Donald Trump sends his trusted negotiator Steve Witkoff to help the new government settle the dispute. He emerges after three days hard negotiation with Dempsey announcing he thinks he has the basis of a settlement he is sure GBR will accept, involving all passenger trains having at least five RMT staff on board, and annual pay rises of at least 10% for the next five years. He then spends another three days at GBR and emerges  announcing he thinks he has the basis of a settlement he is sure RMT will accept, involving a three-year pay freeze and all passenger trains becoming one-man operated. Farage sends him back to Trump, settles the strike with a one-off 15% pay increase and is criticised in the Commons by Louise Haigh (Pro-Palestine, pro-Trans, Sheffield Heeley) for throwing away public funds to get a quick settlement.

7 - July 2026 - At the beginning of the month, there is uproar as the Candy brothers publish their new rail policy. All the London main-line terminals are to be sold for redevelopment as up-market blocks of flats, and the rail network is to be reduced to the Elizabeth Line, whose trains will be repainted in GBR's new Union Jack livery. Following riots and a further huge fall in the Governments opinion poll ratings (already battered by scarcity of fresh fruit and vegetables and consumer electronic goods after imposition of Trump-style tariffs and an invitation to President Trump for a second state visit - fortunately for the King, his doctors issued him with a sick note saying he should not be stressed by attending any state functions), Farage, ever the wily populist, fires the Candys and announces his own rail policy, involving re-opening all the lines closed by Beeching, restoring steam traction to the entire network and making it compulsory to sell warm beer and cigarettes at all catering outlets on the system. Mayor Kahn announces his own counter-proposals, involving TfL taking control of all the old Network Southeast lines and renaming the South West Mainline as "The Tolpuddle Line".

8 - August 2026 - Unhindered by the DfT and ORR, GBR gets on with it (as instructed) and issues provisional tenders for the replacement of all the DMU fleet that is more than 30 years old, and phased overhead electrification of the entire remaining un-electrified network. However no money is made available by Chancellor Tice, so all remain unfulfilled. Notwithstanding, both the Trans-Wilts and North Cotswolds lines record their first week without cancellations in living memory.

9 - September 2026 - Concerned by continuing problems with its IET fleet, GBR begins negotiations with Mexican and Nigerian railways for swapping some of their fleet for the return of the exported HSTs. Negotiations break down when both of them insist on retaining the HST seats to use in replacement for those in the IETs.

10 - October 2026 - Another political crisis engulfs the UK. A calm summer and early autumn results in the record annual arrival of illegal immigrants by boat across the Channel being achieved by October. Farage, recalling vaguely something from history lessons at school about an ancient king stopping the tide coming in by sitting in a chair at the edge of the sea takes an armchair to the beach at Dover and commands the migrants to stop. He is kidnapped by a gang of Albanian people-smugglers, who take him to Albania concealed in a container full of stolen car parts. To capitalise, they issue a demand for payment of £50 million in crypto currency, in default of which they will send him back,  and launch a fund-raising site on the Dark Web. Within 25 minutes of the site being open, the funds are raised, so Farage begins a lucrative new career in Albania selling crypto currency and bullion investment schemes on the Dark Web, but keeps his GB News contract, broadcasting weekly from a bar on the beach in Durres on the Albanian Riviera.

Notwithstanding the continuing ORR and DfT strikes, the Trans-Wilts and North Cotswolds lines both record their second cancellation-free weeks.

11 - November 2026 -  Another snap election is called, after Reform fails to agree on a new leader and splits into several factions. Another seven-way split vote occurs, but Kemi Badenoch eventually pulls together a workable majority after the return the MPs who previous defected to Reform and doing "supply and confidence" deals with the Lib Dems and the Anti-Palestine, anti-Trans and Pro-Palestine, anti-Trans Labour parties, securing the latter two by agreeing that they can have a free vote on any Middle Eastern-related matters. Before her ministerial appointments are made, Badenoch receives early Christmas cards from all her MPs each with a message pleading with her not to make them Transport Secretary or Rail Minister. Lord Hendy sends her his CV.

12 - December 2026 - The UK rail system has its least-disrupted passenger rail service over the Christmas period in years, because the failure of the outgoing government to allocate any funds for any major infrastructure works means no closures for them, but there are still problems due to a larger than usual number of temporary speed limits caused by overdue repair works on the network. New Rail Minister Lord Hendy announces further delays to the completion of phase 1 of HST2, the East-West line, the Leeds tram project and the re-opening of Botley Road in Oxford.
 
Happy New Year!

 

 
Love it at first read and going back to enjoy in more fully in a minute.  I am very much aware that many a true word is written in jest.

 
" ...involving all passenger trains having at least five RMT staff on board... "

Hasn't the DfT occasionally already achieved that with the 5 carriage IEPs they specc'd, running two up, i.e. as a ten carriage set?

Mark